"THE only poll that matters is the general election. Until then, I'll just keep fighting for the people of Barrow and Furness."

That was the message from MP Simon Fell following the release of new modelling that suggested the Conservative Party's hold on Cumbria was under threat. 

The party currently occupies five out of six constituencies in the county, the exception being the Liberal Democrat seat of Westmorland and Lonsdale.

But The New Statesman has predicted four of Cumbria's MPs would end up being from the Labour Party in an election held immediately.

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New modelling from the magazine suggested Mr Fell, who represents Barrow and Furness for the Conservatives, would be among those to lose his seat. 

Mr Fell acknowledged the 'long tail of Covid' and 'impacts of the cost-of-living rises' were 'very much on people's minds'.

But he stressed a real general election would be 'the only poll that matters' and vowed to keep 'doing the job to the best of my ability'.

He said his work included 'securing government support for transformation schemes such as AUKUS [submarines], green hydrogen and carbon capture in the local community'.

The Statesman's modelling predicted the seats of Copeland, Workington and Carlisle would also be taken from the Conservatives by Labour.

Trudy Harrison, MP for Copeland, hit back, saying her party was still 'cleaning up the mess' left behind by the previous, Labour, government when the Tories came to power in 2010.

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"I see no reason for the public to choose their inept and financially incompetent governance for our country and instead expect that the Conservative record on public investment speaks for itself," she said.

The Statesman suggested Conservative Dr Neil Hudson would hold onto his Penrith and The Border seat and that Tim Farron would retain Westmorland and Lonsdale for the Liberal Democrats.

Mr Farron stressed that 'more and more people' were 'understandably fed-up with this appalling Conservative government' but that he was 'taking nothing for granted'.

"I’m concentrating on serving and fighting for local people on the issues that matter to them like the health service, the cost of living, and protecting our lakes and rivers from sewage," he said.

The model used by the Statesman is named 'Britain Predicts'. An article on the Statesman website says this system 'turns poll shares into predicted seats in the House of Commons through a modified system of the strong transition model'.

The figures are based on Cumbria's constituencies in their current form. Boundaries could be set to change, however, as part of a review carried out by the Boundary Commission for England. The commission's final recommendations are to be sent to Parliament by July 1 of this year.