Reform UK is projected to win the Carlisle constituency at the next general election, according to an online model based on current national polling.
Election Maps UK’s latest nowcast puts Reform on 35 per cent in Carlisle, two points ahead of Labour on 33 per cent. The Conservatives are projected to take 18 per cent.
The result would represent a gain for Reform in the city seat, currently held by Labour, and would make the party the main challenger to Labour in parts of Cumbria.
Labour is nevertheless projected to retain Whitehaven and Workington, although the model suggests a much closer contest than at the last general election. Labour is placed on 39 per cent, with Reform on 34 per cent and the Conservatives on 12 per cent.
In Penrith and Solway, Labour is also forecast to remain ahead, on 33 per cent. Reform is projected to win 28 per cent, while the Conservatives are on 23 per cent.
The figures suggest Reform’s growth could reshape the electoral picture across northern and western Cumbria, with the Conservatives running third in all three constituencies.
Election Maps UK’s nowcast uses polling data and constituency modelling to estimate likely outcomes.
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