Doctors across Cumbria are issuing a stark warning to patients about the threat of a massive outbreak of killer flu this winter.

It comes after the same strain of flu spread across Australia, claiming hundreds of lives in recent months.

Now it is heading for the UK, Europe, the USA and Canada, fuelling concerns about how health services will cope.

GPs in Cumbria are therefore urging anyone who has not yet had their flu jab to ensure they are vaccinated urgently.

Dr Andy Knox, a GP from Morecambe Bay, said it is more important than ever to get the jab this winter, stressing that a flu epidemic poses a serious risk to the most vulnerable in society.

"This year in particular we are expecting a pretty bad outbreak of this strain of flu coming from Australia," he said.

"Some people will see the flu jab as a waste of time.

"They don't think flu is serious.

"What people do not realise is that it can absolutely be a severe killer, especially for those with weaker immune systems.

"That's why we target children, over 65s and people with underlying health problems.

"It's really important that people take it seriously."

Dr Knox said that flu can be a real killer, referring to the pandemic of 1918, which wiped out up to 50m people across the globe - more than died in World War One.

"It really did take the Australian healthcare system to the brink this winter," he said.

Carlisle GP Craig Melrose added that the free NHS jab should protect against the Australian strain.

"Australia has had a really bad year with quite a nasty strain, so we are expecting flu could be a real problem for us here.

"If you’re in one of the at risk groups and qualify for the free jab then please get one.


"That includes pregnant women and others who are more at risk of suffering complications if they do catch flu.

"It also applies to carers," he added.

Dr Knox said there are lots of myths about the flu jab, but in reality it could save your life.

"I really can't understand the view that it's just the pharmaceutical industry making money and jabbing people unnecessarily.

"We do not vaccinate people on a whim. It's expensive to do, but is far more cost effective in the long run," he said.

"People also say the jab makes them ill. The nasal spray we give to children is a live vaccine and they can be a bit snotty afterwards, but the adult vaccine is a dead vaccine.

"You can have an immune response, which can make you feel a bit poorly, but compared to the flu it's absolutely nothing.

"There is also another rumour going around that the more flu jabs you have, the less effective they are. The opposite is actually true. You get more protected. It's accumulative."

Both doctors urged anyone over 65, pregnant women and those with long term conditions or weaker immune systems to ask their GP or pharmacist about getting the free flu jab.

Children up to school year four will also be offered the nasal spray, either through their GP or via the school vaccination programme.

For those who don't qualify for the NHS vaccine, they can pay for the jab at a pharmacy if they wish, usually at a cost of about £10 each.

Asked whether he would recommend adults pay privately, Dr Knox said: "I think it's personal choice.

"Most adults should survive flu, but it will completely floor them for one to two weeks.

"It will be a full on fever, aching - it's far more severe than a bad cold.

"If you don't want to risk it or can't afford to take that kind of time off work it might be something to consider."

More than 137,500 cases of flu have been reported in Australia so far this year, including a record breaking 30,000 cases in August.

It is not yet known how many people died as a result, but it runs into hundreds.

Victims have included elderly residents in care homes, but also a 30-year-old dad and young mum-of-two.

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Practices struggle to meet patient demand

With a well-publicised shortage of GPs in Cumbria, many practices are already struggling to meet the demands of patients.

Some have introduced same day only appointments, while others now assess everyone by telephone first.

With the threat of a severe flu outbreak, along with predictions of a huge spike in demand across the NHS generally this winter, there are fears services could be pushed to breaking point.

Dr Craig Melrose, from Carlisle Healthcare, warned: "It’s already started with the increase in respiratory illness.

"We’ve seen an increase in coughs and colds in the past six weeks or so.

"We’ve also got croup in children at the moment. All that’s common at this time of year.

“We’ve had the normal increase but as it gets colder those respiratory illnesses tend to increase further.

“National research has shown that, on the day of a cold snap, people with heart problems are more at risk, the chance of stroke increases after five days and after 10 days it’s the risk of respiratory illness."

He urged people to think about how they can look after themselves, such as getting their flu jab and keeping their homes warm, to avoid ending up needing medical help and potentially ending up in hospital.

Dr Knox, a GP and executive lead for health and wellbeing at Morecambe Bay Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG), is also asking people to think about self-care where appropriate.

"We need to realise that the NHS belongs to all of us, and it really is creaking at the seams with huge demand, less staff and less resources.

"If people run straight to the doctor when they could have been to a pharmacist or looked for advice online it doesn't help," he said.

Dr Melrose said there are simple precautions everyone can take to avoid getting ill, including basic hygiene steps like hand-washing.

He also said that if you do have a bad cold or sickness bug, you should avoid going into places - including hospitals and care homes but also schools and workplaces - where it will easily spread.

“You might want to be a martyr and go into work, but then you give it to all your colleagues so you aren’t really helping anyone.

"There is often a pressure to go into work, but if you have a fever it’s best to stay at home," he said.

Earlier this year A&E departments in both north and south Cumbria experienced sickness outbreaks.

On two occasions it was due to visitors vomiting while on their wards, spreading it to patients.

People are therefore urged to stay away, and keep children away, from hospitals until they have been symptom-free for 48 hours.

Dr Melrose urged the public to bear with GPs and other health staff this winter, saying they are doing everything possible to see or speak with everyone as quickly as possible.

“It’s no secret that the GP service is extremely stretched. The demand outstrips supply.

"In my practice, for the winter, we are making available as many on-the-day appointments as possible, and balancing that with the need to manage long term problems.

“In the main we will want to speak to people on the telephone first.

"That means we can give advice and only need to spend time with the people that really need us," he explained.

Asked whether patients are happy with the phone assessments, he said: “I think people like what they’ve always had, but we have found that people have come round to it and got used to the system.

“A lot of situations we can deal with on the phone.

"I do, and I think we all do, have a low threshold for seeing people if I'm not sure.

"Face to face slots are always available for this, but not all people need to be seen."

Dr Knox said however busy it gets this winter, he would ask the public not to take out their stress on NHS staff.

"We do see a lot of unkindness towards staff and actually quite aggressive behaviour at times. That really affects morale and has a negative impact," he added.

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NHS staff get jab too

With the threat of a massive flu outbreak from Australia, Cumbria's NHS services are working hard to ensure staff are also protected.

Dianne Hutchinson, flu immunisation lead at the Cumbria Partnership NHS Foundation Trust, said this is really vital.

"Our staff are the ones in contact with patients. We do not want flu brought into the trust and patients being put at risk," she said.

It will also prevent huge rates of staff sickness this winter.

The trust, along with others in the county, have launched a proactive campaign to encourage staff to get the free flu jab.

Although most important for frontline workers, all employees are eligible in a bid to prevent any contact with the potentially-deadly flu strain.

They are hoping that this year they will surpass last year's vaccination rate and are taking flu clinics onto wards to ensure staff can find the time.